Intermediate Results And Prospects Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War

“…the current Armenian leadership is not ready to (or does not want to) employ all of its means and forces to fight back the Azerbaijani advance.”

It has been obvious for a while that Pashinyan wants Nagorno Karabakh to fall. The only explanation of that is that he wants to blame it on Russia and, freed of the territorial dispute, join NATO. And this also means that

1. Russia should have intervened to stop the war from happening at all in its own interests.

2. The contention that Russia needed to teach Pashinyan a lesson was infantile and played right into his hands.

“Baku seeks to not only dismantle the self-proclaimed Armenian state, but also to remove Armenians from this territory.”

Of course it does. That is the only way their entire campaign makes sense. Compelling a refugee exodus into Armenia serves these purposes:

1. Hastens the collapse of the Nagorno Karabakh defences by clogging supply routes with refugees and demoralising the defenders, leaving them with nothing to defend.

2. Prevents any chance of a guerrilla war afterwards. No guerrilla war if there aren’t any Armenians to conduct it.Allows Sultan Erdogan to settle Idlibistani jihadi headchoppers as colonists in the recaptured areas, just as he did Uighurs in Jisr al Shughour.

3. The attacks on civilian population centres and the mutilation and murder of prisoners is to achieve the same end.

“…this will lead to the immediate collapse of the Pashinyan regime…”

No it will not.

1. Did defeat lead to the collapse of the Ukranazi coup regime?

2. Did defeat lead to the collapse of the Georgia anti Russia regime?

3. Pashinyan will merely blame Russia, say that NATO would guarantee Armenia’s security, exit CSTO and join NATO.

It’s all planned and being executed even as you read this.

Commentary via Bill the Butcher

5 thoughts on “Intermediate Results And Prospects Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War

  1. This is an alternative view and one cannot rule out that it is valid. But I’m not sold on it and rather wait for additional information. Russia has supported Armenia with weapon shipments via Iran. Azerbajan has gained ground but only in flat areas in the east and northeast. The mountainous regions will be hard to take. A defeat will be the end of Pashinyan, and he will not be able to blame Russia as NATO has no intention nor ability to get engaged in this conflict.

      They’re advancing towards that road (circled in red) going north. Once they reach it they can head straight North to cut off the direct path from Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia and it’s all over.

      There are only two major roads Azerbaijan needs to cut. The other in the north is also much more difficult for the Armenians to depend on and much easier for the Azerbaijanis to close down with artillery.

      Note that the southern road is in the plains. The Azeris don’t have to touch the mountains at all.

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