Intermediate Results And Prospects Of Armenian-Azerbaijani War
“…the current Armenian leadership is not ready to (or does not want to) employ all of its means and forces to fight back the Azerbaijani advance.”
It has been obvious for a while that Pashinyan wants Nagorno Karabakh to fall. The only explanation of that is that he wants to blame it on Russia and, freed of the territorial dispute, join NATO. And this also means that
1. Russia should have intervened to stop the war from happening at all in its own interests.
2. The contention that Russia needed to teach Pashinyan a lesson was infantile and played right into his hands.
“Baku seeks to not only dismantle the self-proclaimed Armenian state, but also to remove Armenians from this territory.”
Of course it does. That is the only way their entire campaign makes sense. Compelling a refugee exodus into Armenia serves these purposes:
1. Hastens the collapse of the Nagorno Karabakh defences by clogging supply routes with refugees and demoralising the defenders, leaving them with nothing to defend.
2. Prevents any chance of a guerrilla war afterwards. No guerrilla war if there aren’t any Armenians to conduct it.Allows Sultan Erdogan to settle Idlibistani jihadi headchoppers as colonists in the recaptured areas, just as he did Uighurs in Jisr al Shughour.
3. The attacks on civilian population centres and the mutilation and murder of prisoners is to achieve the same end.
“…this will lead to the immediate collapse of the Pashinyan regime…”
No it will not.
1. Did defeat lead to the collapse of the Ukranazi coup regime?
2. Did defeat lead to the collapse of the Georgia anti Russia regime?
3. Pashinyan will merely blame Russia, say that NATO would guarantee Armenia’s security, exit CSTO and join NATO.
It’s all planned and being executed even as you read this.